For many new stock investors, this week has been far too thrilling, from heaven to hell, witnessing the peak of a bull market and also seeing the brutality of a bear market. It wasn't until today that new investors realized that the first lesson of a bull market is not to rush in to grab money, but to take the initiative to get caught in a trap. A week ago, they were still distressed about not being able to buy in, and a week later, they started thinking about closing their accounts.
This is actually the true A-share market, where the hardships experienced by veteran investors, the paths they have taken, and the psychological journeys they have been through, new investors will eventually have to go through as well.
Nowadays, the voices shouting for a bull market are almost inaudible. New investors have calmed down, and veteran investors are about to become reclusive. The entire market's mood has shifted from heaven to hell, and the huge gap has made everyone start to accept reality.
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Securities firms are no longer busy with account openings, and there is no need for overtime work. Even online, there are calls for a collective queue to close accounts, as if everyone had a quick dream.
Looking back at the outbreak of this fast bull market, when I reviewed the content I posted on September 26, the speed also exceeded expectations. After all, at that time, Goldman Sachs only said to invest tactically in Chinese stocks, and everyone just hoped to return to 3,000 points. (The market closed exactly at 3,000 points at that time)
There were not many people looking at 3,200 points at the time, and if I started counting from 2,689 points, the upward range of eight hundred points was only seen above 3,500 points.
However, later on, the market's emotions changed and became uncontrollable. After the National Day holiday, the market surged by a thousand points in one breath, and the index directly went above 3,600 points, causing the market to cool down.
September 26th review content
For me personally, I think the speed of this fast bull market's rise exceeded expectations, at least the speed at the beginning exceeded my expectations for the rise. Of course, for those who want to break through six thousand and ten thousand points in one breath, they may be the most disappointed.So, even though the market is currently in a downtrend correction, I am still not that pessimistic. Since emotions have exceeded expectations, they will eventually cool down, and the market will still have to move step by step. Without a fast bull or a crazy bull, we will ultimately have to accept a slow bull.
No one can fully capitalize on the market, nor can anyone completely avoid missing out. The most important thing is not to be controlled by external emotions, amplifying joy when the market rises and amplifying panic when it falls. I have heard too many of these voices.
At 2700 points, I saw many people asking why they should be bullish? It's about to set a new low, so hurry up and cut your losses; at 3600 points, I still saw many people using leverage to rush in, which is a characteristic of human nature.
But we must have our own judgment. We need to learn to hold on when the market is low. Don't panic after a big rise followed by a fall. If you are holding a speculative mindset and want to make a fortune in the stock market, you will most likely lose everything in the end.
If you really want to survive in the stock market, at least you won't completely miss out in the early stage. Even if you add more positions later, you won't be chasing high positions with a full position.
The above is some of my insights. Next, let's talk about some views on the market, especially after experiencing the market baptism this week, will there be a rebound next week?
1. Forget the past, plan to go back, and wait patiently for opportunities:
If you are still in the market now, I can only tell everyone to learn to forget the past. No matter how crazy the market was before, it has passed. No matter whether your cost is high or low, the past cannot be changed, and you can only continue to look forward to the future.
How will the future go?
Some people say that the A-shaped kill will continue, and it will set a new low;Some argue that after a pullback, the market will continue to soar, and the bull market will continue;
These are emotions corresponding to different positions and viewpoints, as those who are currently out of the market naturally hope for a sharp decline; whereas those who are holding positions and have chased highs hope for the bull market to continue to surge.
However, one should not overlook a factor: the reason why this bull market has risen so quickly is due to a succession of policy benefits and an emotional outbreak in a short period. The sudden halt is also because emotions have gone overboard, with various leveraged funds flowing into the market in violation of regulations.
This indicates that the authorities want the market to perform well and want capital to enter, but they do not want capital to enter indiscriminately. Therefore, both a sharp decline and a surge do not conform to the rules at present.
It can now be basically stated:
Firstly, the broad market index will basically not return to 2600 points;
Secondly, the stock market will ultimately rise, and efforts to boost confidence in the capital market will not be limited to this wave;
The current pessimism mainly stems from excessively high short-term expectations. It is precisely because expectations are too high that the market rises too quickly after the bull market arrives. In fact, the increase in this round is not very high.
Therefore, it will definitely rise again later, but in a different way, with a rhythmic and rational increase. Irrational rapid increases can no longer occur. Be patient and wait for the next opportunity after the adjustment;
2. The attention of global capital is focused on tomorrow, will it become the redemption for A-shares? The market is viewed in this way next week:The rise in the stock market is beneficial in many ways, so why can't it be allowed to keep rising indefinitely?
I think this idea is good, as the rise in the stock market indeed has more advantages than disadvantages. But what about a rampant stock market surge?
The drawbacks might outweigh the benefits. People might sell their homes and cars to leverage their investments in stocks. Under the herd effect, the stock market bubble would continue to expand, and eventually, a large number of people would suffer and exit the market.
Human greed is uncontrollable. The reason we hope for a rising stock market is based on a normal and controllable state of increase. However, when greed combines with profit, the stock market is prone to problems.
Therefore, I still firmly believe that the authorities will improve the current state of the stock market. Some policies may fall short of expectations, while others might be too forceful. But after adjustments, the market will still move towards the positive.
The image source is from Caixin Media.
Today at noon, the Beijing Stock Exchange announced a strict crackdown on illegal share disposals, indicating that the recent concentrated disposals have attracted regulatory attention. The next step might be for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges to also make statements about share disposals.
For tomorrow's market, although the stock market is closed, one event will be the focus of global capital:
The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on Saturday (tomorrow), and the Ministry of Finance's incremental policies may be implemented.
This press conference has high attention, but the market trend in recent days, does it mean that everyone's expectations for policies are not that high?It's still too early to draw conclusions. Before the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on September 24, the market was also very quiet, but the policy began to release beyond expectations.
At least the results tomorrow will not be too disappointing. There are many tools in the toolbox now, but they may not all be released at once. It is the mainstream to let the water flow slowly.
For the market next week, I have a few opinions:
First, as the volume quickly shrinks, the market may also quickly stop falling;
Second, a quick rise corresponds to a quick fall. From an emotional point of view, this is the fastest way to wash the plate;
Third, from the current market divergence, it can be seen that it is more in line with the environment for some funds to enter and build positions. After all, it has begun to turn into a unified pessimism;
Therefore, the probability of the A-share market rotating and repairing next week is relatively large. Although a surge is difficult to appear, the plate needs to start rotating and repairing after a sharp fall, and those in the field need to be more patient.