On October 10th, the top three spots on the A-share turnover list were swept by securities stocks, with Oriental Fortune, CITIC Securities, and Tianfeng Securities collectively trading 93.4 billion yuan. Concurrently, following the implementation of major asset restructuring plans, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities' A-shares resumed trading on the same day and both hit the upper limit of the daily price fluctuation, with the total amount of orders exceeding 24 billion yuan.
Behind the "sky-high" capital game, what market signals are hidden has become the focus of investors' attention.
Looking at the overall performance of the securities sector, since September 24th, securities stocks have generally shown an upward trend. However, following a decline in the market on October 9th, the overall trend of the securities sector still shows divergence.
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Benefiting from the implementation of the merger and reorganization plans of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, several "merger and reorganization concept stocks" within the A-share securities sector rose at the opening yesterday. By the close, Guolian Securities increased by 4.74%, and the company announced on September 27th that the application for the merger with Minsheng Securities had been accepted. Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities both hit the daily limit, with Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities having 15.019 billion yuan and 9.037 billion yuan in capital orders at the close, respectively.
Since September 24th, securities stocks represented by Oriental Fortune have strengthened with the market, with increasing volume and price day by day. Under the hot speculation of funds, on October 9th, Oriental Fortune's total trading volume for the day reached 90.038 billion yuan, setting a new record for the highest single-day trading volume of an individual stock in the A-share market in nearly 17 years. On that day, Oriental Fortune's stock price once rose by nearly 19%, seemingly about to hit a "four-day limit," but then it fell all the way, with a closing increase of only 2.22%. On October 10th, Oriental Fortune's trading volume reached 52 billion yuan, continuing to top the turnover list, but its stock price fell sharply, closing down 17.47%.
Tianfeng Securities, which previously achieved a "seven-day limit," played a "sky-floor" yesterday, with a total trading volume of 19.4 billion yuan. On the evening of October 9th, Tianfeng Securities issued an announcement on abnormal fluctuations in stock trading and risk warning. Regarding recent market rumors about the company's merger and reorganization plans, Tianfeng Securities stated that there are no plans for merger and reorganization or other major matters that should be disclosed but have not been disclosed.
Post-market dragon and tiger list data show that the "Lhasa Team" of Oriental Fortune Securities, which is regarded as the "retail investor's stronghold," continued to buy Tianfeng Securities in large amounts yesterday, while speculative capital seats chose to take profits.
Securities stocks have always been regarded as the "bull market flag bearers" that convey market direction. Currently, what signals are conveyed by the game of securities stocks?
On October 10th, the turnover of the securities sector reached 178.7 billion yuan, accounting for 8.27% of the total market turnover, slightly lower than the previous trading day. Tianfeng Securities believes that the turnover ratio and trading congestion of the current securities sector can be referenced by the market conditions from 2014 to 2015. The market conditions from 2014 to 2015 can be divided into four stages: brewing period, main rise period, fluctuation period, and peak-seeking period. During the brewing period, the sector's turnover ratio and trading congestion were relatively low, with an average turnover ratio/trading congestion of 4.35%/2.66%; during the main rise period, the turnover ratio and congestion increased rapidly, with an average turnover ratio/trading congestion of 12.9%/10.1%, and the peak values were 19.7%/16.5%; during the fluctuation period, the turnover ratio and congestion remained high; during the peak-seeking period, both the turnover ratio and congestion fell.
Looking forward to the future market, Hu Xiang, a non-bank analyst at Dongwu Securities, believes that policy shifts driving market trading activity are the main investment theme for the current non-bank sector, and whether market trading activity can continue will be key.
Xu Yingying, a non-bank analyst at Caitong Securities, said that performance elasticity is expected to support the upward space of securities stock prices. Against the backdrop of rapid market turnover and a significant increase in the equity market, securities brokerage and proprietary businesses will release significant performance elasticity, driving a significant improvement in the growth rate of securities performance. The top securities firms with optimized resource integration and optimized risk control indicators for ROE improvement are optimistic.