Today's A-share market has experienced a fluctuating adjustment, with a general decline in individual stocks and no rebound as most people had hoped for, which is undoubtedly disappointing. When will this adjustment end, and will the A-share market be able to stop falling and move upwards this afternoon? I will share a few personal opinions for everyone's reference.
Firstly, the current adjustment in the A-share market has not yet ended, and patience is required. After the holiday, the atmosphere in the A-share market has gradually cooled down from being highly excited and is returning to a normal trend. What is the normal trend of the A-share market? To understand this, one needs to look at what the A-share market has been doing in the past two years and what its biggest goal is now. Everyone will then know what the normal trend of the A-share market is.
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Here, a common saying becomes very clear: it is for the major forces to adjust their positions and exchange stocks. To put it bluntly, it is to sell off banks, oil, coal, white liquor, and new lithium photovoltaic stocks. This is also the fundamental reason for initiating this market trend. Understanding this purpose will prevent one from being swayed by the hype of a major bull market created by the major forces.
This is also the fundamental reason why this market trend came quickly and went away quickly. Currently, all aspects do not support the A-share market from moving into a major bull market. Not to mention other things, technically speaking, there is a lack of a long-term horizontal bottoming and falling foundation, where does the bull market come from? As I said a few days ago, this market trend is top-heavy and bottom-light. The accumulated transaction volume of 350 billion yuan on October 8th is very difficult to surpass in recent years.
Everyone should treat the current trend rationally and must not get carried away. They should face the risks of the current adjustment. It is highly likely that the A-share market will return to the previous situation where the major forces were the only ones performing solo.
Secondly, today's A-share market has seen a significant contraction in transaction volume for three consecutive days, indicating that the transaction volume level has not returned to a normal level, and the adjustment will continue.
Today, the Northbound capital market is closed, and the A-share market is alone in its fluctuating adjustment trend, indicating that there is no foreign capital coming to the A-share market. This is a world of difference from the media's crazy speculation that foreign capital is frantically grabbing A-share assets. From the following 60-minute trend chart of the A-share market index, one can clearly see the process of the A-share market index's volume contraction.In the four trading days following the holiday, the trading volume in the first hour shrank in a ladder pattern, with a significant reduction. This is because the current market trend was established with large trading volumes and rapid price increases, which sets a very strict requirement for future trading volumes. The current reduction in volume can only indicate one thing: a large amount of capital entered the market in the first two days after the holiday and got trapped. In the past two days, capital from outside the market has started to hesitate, but the main capital within the market is still flowing out significantly.
Yesterday, the A-share market rebounded, with a net outflow of nearly 60 billion yuan in main capital. This morning, this figure has reached 55.6 billion yuan. In the four trading days after the holiday, more than 500 billion yuan of main capital has flowed out significantly, indicating that the main players are fleeing on a large scale. Today, Northbound capital is closed for trading. If it were not closed, more capital would have fled.
Thirdly, the stocks with the largest decline today are those with small and medium market capitalization.
We can see from the trend of the average stock price in A-shares that today is a general decline. There are 4,540 stocks declining in the two markets, and the declines in the ChiNext and STAR Market are both over 3%, indicating that stocks with small and medium market capitalization are rapidly receding. Some of them opened at the limit down, directly trapping the capital that entered the market on the 8th and 9th to chase high. In just three trading days, many stocks have been trapped by more than 20%. What is risk? This is it.
The securities sector fell by 1.41% this morning, which is quite gentle. Considering its increase, it would not be too much to fall by 5% today, but the task is not completed, and it can only hold on like this. CATL in the ChiNext market plummeted by 4.97% today. Without the support of Northbound capital, its true face is revealed.
Secondly, although the market is adjusting, it cannot continue to decline indefinitely. There needs to be a short-term rebound to better facilitate the decline.
The market quieted down immediately after the adjustment, which is actually a very immature performance. Regardless of the rise or fall, it is necessary to maintain calmness and rationality in order to see the essence and direction of the market trend.
After the significant pullback in the past two days, the A-share market will have a short-term rebound, that is, a small rebound. Currently, the A-share market is building a small platform, and the rebound will take place between 3,200 and 3,350 points, in order to better dive. Everyone should pay attention to this rebound next week. If the main capital cannot bear it, it will start this afternoon, and in order to lure more, anything can be done.
I maintain my judgment: to fill the gap on September 30th, to explore the support in the 3,000-3,100 point range, this is a process, a few slow declines, this is a typical method for the main force to sell goods, otherwise, how can the chips be thrown out?Now when it comes to watching the market, the focus is primarily on three aspects: First, trading volume; second, the securities sector; and third, one's own account. By grasping these three points, you will find things much easier. There's no need to watch those passionate live broadcasts. After all, it's just stock trading; there's no need to be so fervent and exhausting.